By Sabin Iqbal

Climate Change is not the stuff of imagination and it has already begun to affect agriculture and food security in the developing countries. To add to the pandemic worries the world over, more people are expected to go hungry this year.

In 1996, The World Food Summit defined food security as: “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food which meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life.” It has three dimensions: food availability (production), access to food, and food absorption. Hence, adequate food production alone does not promise food security.

Globally, food security is a major concern of climate change as it hits hard in complex ways. It impacts crops, livestock, forestry, fisheries and aquaculture, and can cause grave social and economic consequences in the form of reduced incomes, eroded livelihoods, trade disruption and adverse health impacts. 

However, it is important to note that the net impact of climate change depends not only on the extent of the climatic shock but also on the underlying vulnerabilities. According to a report from the UN’s Food & Agriculture Organisation (FAO), biophysical and social vulnerabilities equally determine the net impact of climate change on food security.

“Climate change threatens to reverse the progress made so far in the fight against hunger and malnutrition,” says the report. “An assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate change (IPCC) says that climate change augments and intensifies risks to food security for the most vulnerable countries and populations. Four out of the eight key risks induced by climate change identified by IPCC have direct consequences for food security: loss of rural livelihoods and income; loss of marine and coastal ecosystems, and livelihoods; loss of terrestrial and inland water ecosystems, and livelihoods; and food insecurity and breakdown of food systems.”

India will bear the brunt of climate change, as it affects the country’s long-term food security initiatives and food production. Climate change is poised to cause significant increases in inter-annual and intra-seasonal changes in monsoon rainfall. It generates considerable uncertainty about future water availability in many regions. It will affect precipitation, run-off and snow/ice melt, with effects on hydrological systems, water quality and water temperature, as well as on groundwater recharge. In many regions of the world, increased water scarcity under climate change will present a major challenge for climate adaptation. Sea-level rise will affect the salinity of surface and groundwater in coastal areas. 

Climatologists in India have agreed that the changing weather patterns have already taken a toll on the country’s agriculture, which supports nearly half of its population. This year, there has been ‘skewed’ rainfall and a ‘truant’ monsoon.

Experts say that longer dry spells and short periods of heavy rainfall are sure signs of the climate crisis’s impact on the monsoon. The rain-bearing system is critical for drinking, power and farming. “It is now widely agreed by scientists that the number of rainy days will decrease due to the impact of climate crisis but total quantum of rainfall will remain same,” says K.J. Ramesh, former chief, IMD.

Farmers across the country have sown crops in about 84.6 million hectares -- down 4.5 per cent from the 88 million hectares sown last year. The rains, however, pulled sowing up to a level considered normal, which is 84 million hectares -- the average of the past five years. Flooding in states such as Maharashtra has destroyed crops. Interestingly, in the usually rain-surplus Assam, authorities have declared a drought in paddy hubs as rainfall so far has been 20 per cent deficient.