The trend of rewarding the risk-taker is not restricted to India alone. It manifests globally. Look at Tesla, whose promoter, Elon Musk, took a gamble to bring out electric vehicles. The company was almost on the brink of bankruptcy, but today, Tesla's market cap is $590 billion, while the market cap of some of the other leading auto players has stayed considerably lower. Ford’s is at about $36 billion; Volkswagen’s, at $100 billion; and Toyota, close to $216 billion. In other words, Tesla’s market cap is higher than the combined market cap of the other three auto giants. And, imagine, Tesla came into being only in 2003!

Companies that will thrive are those who are willing to take risks. Remember, profitability is no longer the criterion for businesses to succeed. Investors are willing to back companies, if their businesses are innovative. But many business houses have a different idea of taking risks. They think expanding the business in the same line, either through organic or inorganic routes, is risk-taking. I am afraid it's not. The risk is of a different kind, when you start a business with innovative ideas, rather than acquiring companies or setting up new plants.

Tata Steel acquired Corus, but the market did not reward it well. It was the same with Tata Motors’ acquisition of JLR and Hindalco’s takeover of Novelis. They all took the risks, but were not appreciated by the market. Tata Steel’s 10-year equity returns in absolute terms, are almost nil, while Tata Motors' 10-year return is a negative 31 per cent and Hindalco’s a mere 11 per cent.

 Now, let’s do some crystal-gazing. Who will top the list of Business India Super 100 in, say, 2040? Before we do that, let me give you some statistics. Out of those in the Fortune 500 list of 1995, only 60 have survived in the list today. The rest have either been acquired or have closed down. In India, too the tally will not be any different. TCS was not listed in 2000, but it’s today the second-most valuable company in the country. The companies that used to be in top list, like VSNL (acquired by Tata), or Ranbaxy (Merged with Sun Pharma) or Satyam (merged with Tech Mahindra) are all in the history books. Likewise, many of today's toppers will not find a place in the top list two decades down the line.

Either they would have been acquired or would be struggling to survive, as was the case with MTNL.  I have a feeling that the list of 2040 will be dominated by companies that are in the forefront of the process of technology-adoption. At least 20 per cent of the companies from that list may not even be listed today. The dominance of manufacturing companies will come to an end, while companies from the service sector will dominate. Remember: ‘opex’ will be the new buzzword, as capex would by then have taken the back seat.

So, how do you know who will survive? It will be those who take risks and bring a fresh perspective to the business model (remember, Jio focussed on data, rather than voice revenue). Unfortunately, despite reforms initiated by the Narasimha Rao government way back in the 1990s, we don’t have many world-beating industries, except in IT services and pharma. These two industries are competing in the world market and are well respected. They deserve applause.

Now, detractors may argue that they are not focussed on IT products or drug innovation. That too will eventually happen, as the present set of players has set the right platforms for new companies to innovate. In the next two decades, many Indian pharma companies will have developed patented drugs and IT companies, new products. We may even see a few IT product companies from India. I am optimistic about that.

Future toppers will have to focus on becoming globally competitive; not based on cheap labour, but on technology. Adoption of high technology should be the way to go. I am afraid not many business houses at present are looking in that direction.

I hope India Inc will shed its risk-averse attitude and become risk-takers. Mukesh Ambani has set the ball rolling. He should be the ideal role model for them to follow.